Condo Supply Wave Ahead: What It Means for Resale Sellers

By Winfred Quek · CEA R073319H · Published 26 October 2026

Facts verified: 26 October 2026 · Sources listed below

If you own a resale condo, you have probably seen headlines about a wave of new homes arriving. This page separates what the official numbers say from what commentators think, then shows what it may mean for you. It does not forecast prices, and no one can time the market. It sits alongside our other supply pages: reading the new launch pipeline, new launch versus resale by district, HDB flats reaching MOP and the BTO supply wave. Those cover buyers, HDB and the public side. This one is for private resale sellers.

What the official numbers say

URA published its full 3Q 2026 real estate statistics on 23 October 2026, after a flash estimate on 1 October. I used the full release. Here are the figures that matter for a resale seller.

Source: URA, Release of 3rd Quarter 2026 real estate statistics, 23 October 2026, ura.gov.sg/news/media/pr26-73. Price and rental changes are quarter on quarter.

Two things stand out. First, completions jumped in 3Q and vacancy rose with them, yet prices and rents both still rose. A wave of completions has not translated into falling numbers so far. Second, the expected completions are not evenly spread: URA's split shows about 22,300 units due by 2028 and the larger share, about 34,900, from 2029 onward. The release text does not give separate figures for 2026, 2027 and 2028, so I have not quoted any. URA also said that units obtaining TOP in the first three quarters of 2026 were 5,170 private units and 872 ECs.

The Government Land Sales side. URA's 3 June 2026 release on the 2H 2026 programme says the Confirmed List will launch 4,745 private units, including 735 EC units, and 9,320 units for the full year, more than 50% above the average of the past 10 years. A Reserve List could add 4,455 units if developers see demand. At that date URA put the total pipeline, including ECs, at about 61,000 units. Source: URA, 3 June 2026, ura.gov.sg/news/media/pr26-41. Land sold today becomes homes years from now, so this feeds the 2029 onward figure more than next year's completions.

Pipeline total, then and now. URA's 24 July 2026 release for 2Q put expected completions at about 60,600 units, with about 25,900 by 2028 and about 34,700 from 2029. The 23 October release shows about 57,200, with about 22,300 by 2028. Source: URA, 24 July 2026, ura.gov.sg/news/media/pr26-57. Pipeline numbers move as projects complete and as developers revise dates, so treat them as estimates. Also note that the 1 October flash estimate gave slightly different segment figures from the 23 October final ones, such as non landed prices up 0.9% in the flash and 1.0% in the final.

What the market is saying

I looked for commentary from the last few weeks by agencies, research houses and property media. Below is who said what, in my own words, with the date and link. I found no recent commentary on this topic from Tie, Savills or Knight Frank, and I could not open Straits Times or Business Times pages, so they are not covered. The views are theirs, not mine.

Where they agree and disagree. They broadly agree that more completed stock widens choice for tenants and buyers. They differ on the price effect. PropNex sees little room for new home prices to ease, while Huttons reports resale prices easing and Newmark expects a wider gap between new and resale. These are not necessarily in conflict, since new and resale are different markets and each firm uses its own data. Some figures also differ from URA's: Stacked Homes reported 19,076 unsold private homes, while URA's 20,300 unsold units with planning approval include ECs, and I have not reconciled the two definitions. EdgeProp's commentary cites 3,491 units as the rise in completed stock, while URA's headline completions figure is 3,559 including ECs. Huttons' 1.1% fall in resale prices is its own measure and sits alongside URA's overall index rising 1.4%. When figures conflict, I have used URA's.

How a completion wave can touch a resale seller

This is general information about channels, not a prediction that any of it will happen to your unit.

• More choice for buyers nearby. A buyer looking in your area can now see new units, unsold units from recently completed projects, and units sold on by earlier buyers. A resale unit is compared with all of them, and URA's data already shows resale making up 73.9% of sales in 3Q.
• Nearby TOP dates. The weeks around a neighbouring project's TOP are when many units can reach the market at once, either for sale or for rent. If you are selling in that window, you share the buyer pool with them.
• Rental competition if you rent out. Landlords of nearby older units compete with brand new units for tenants. CBRE expects tenants to become more selective as choice widens, while URA's index still rose in 3Q. That may mean the asking rent and the time to find a tenant both deserve a fresh look.
• The new versus resale price gap. If new launch prices move up with land costs, as Newmark and PropNex both pointed to, a resale unit can look relatively better value to some buyers. If completed new units are offered at discounts, it can go the other way. I cannot tell you which.
• Buyer behaviour. Cushman and Wakefield noted that sellers holding firm can cool volumes. A seller who prices well above what nearby units are achieving may wait longer.

How to check completions near your condo

1. List the projects within a short walk or the same school or MRT catchment as your condo.
2. For each, find the stage: launched, under construction, or completed, and its expected TOP year. URA's Property Market Information pages and its Realis data are the official starting point. I could not confirm a ready made project by project pipeline list on URA's public pages, so you may need to search by planning area or ask a professional.
3. Note the size and type of units, because a project of small investor units competes differently from large family units.
4. Look at recent resale and rental transactions in your own project and the nearest completed ones, not just the district average.
5. Treat TOP years as estimates. Developers report dates, and those dates can shift.

Winfred can run this nearby check with you. Meanwhile, the valuation tool gives a starting view of your unit, and the net proceeds calculator shows what you would keep after loan, CPF refund and costs.

When a completion wave may not matter much

• A different segment. URA's 3Q index moved differently across regions: OCR up 2.3%, RCR unchanged, CCR up 0.3%. A wave concentrated in one region says little about a unit in another.
• Freehold versus leasehold, and age. Buyers weigh tenure and remaining lease differently. A freehold unit in a small, established project is rarely a direct substitute for a new 99 year launch, though some buyers will compare them.
• Unit type. If most nearby new supply is one bedroom or studio units and yours is a family sized unit, you may compete for a different buyer.
• No big completion near you. The national figure is a headline. If nothing large is due to TOP close to you, the local effect may be small.
• Your own timeline. If you are not selling for years, the near term pipeline matters less than your plans, your loan and your holding period.

I am not saying the wave is irrelevant. I am saying its relevance is local. No one can time the market, including agencies with research teams, and the commentators above reach different conclusions from the same data.

Questions to settle before you act

• Which projects near me are due to TOP in the next two years, and how many units do they have?
• How do I compare with them on size, tenure, age and price per square foot?
• What would I clear after loan discharge, CPF refund and selling costs? Use the net proceeds tool.
• Is my SSD period over, and does it affect timing? See what to do once SSD has ended.
• Am I selling because I want to, or because of a headline? Organise the question with the should I sell tool.

Frequently asked questions

How many private homes are due to complete in the next few years?

URA's 23 Oct 2026 release says about 57,200 private units, including ECs, are expected to complete in total. About 22,300 are due by 2028 and about 34,900 from 2029 onward. The release text does not split these by single year.

Will more completions lower my condo's resale price?

Nobody can say for certain. URA's overall price index rose 1.4% in 3Q 2026 while vacancy rose to 7.2%, and Huttons reported that resale prices eased 1.1% on its own measure. The effect, if any, depends on your segment, your location and what completes near you.

How do I check completions near my condo?

Start with URA's Property Market Information pages and its Realis data for projects under construction near you, then look at each project's expected TOP year. Winfred can run the nearby project check for you. Treat expected completion dates as estimates that can move.

Should I rush to sell before the new units complete?

This page cannot tell you that. Selling earlier or later changes your costs, your holding period for SSD and your next purchase. Test your own numbers with the net proceeds and should I sell tools, and speak to Winfred before deciding.

Does a completion wave affect rents?

It can. URA's rental index rose 1.3% in 3Q 2026 even as vacancy rose from 6.4% to 7.2%. CBRE and Realion both forecast modest rent growth for 2026, and CBRE expects leasing to slow as tenants get more choice.

Winfred Quek, CEA R073319H, Crestbrick Pte Ltd (L3010886H). General information as at 26 October 2026, not legal, financial, tax or property advice. Figures are from URA and the commentators named, and may change. This page makes no price forecast.