Progression Pillar · 2026 Data
New launch vs resale by district: the 2026 numbers
By Winfred Quek · 14-minute read · Published 22 April 2026
Most buyers compare new launches to resale condos the wrong way. They take a new launch PSF, find a resale PSF in the same district, compute a gap, and conclude either "too expensive" or "worth the premium." That framing misses the actual question: is the premium justified by the specific submarket's 3-to-5-year trajectory, and does it still hold once you account for the income you forgo while waiting for TOP? The answer varies substantially by district, and it is not the answer most developers' sales teams will give you.
This article works through the numbers district by district using current launch data, published resale transaction ranges, and investor-grade math. Every figure from resale PSF is sourced and flagged as estimated (est.) where precise district medians are not publicly available from URA. New launch PSF figures come directly from developer announcements and sales data tracked through April 2026.
The baseline: what the premium looks like across regions
Before going district by district, it helps to anchor on the regional picture. Based on Q1 2026 URA data and ERA Research, new launches command the following premiums over resale at the aggregate segment level:
| Segment | Resale median PSF (est.) | New launch median PSF | Premium (est.) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCR (D1, 2, 9, 10, 11) | S$2,215 – S$2,800 | S$2,800 – S$3,300 | ~20 – 25% | WATCH |
| RCR (D3, 4, 5, 8, 14, 15) | S$1,896 – S$2,300 | S$2,400 – S$2,900 | ~25 – 30% | SELECTIVE |
| OCR (D18, 19, 22, 23, 27) | S$1,400 – S$1,800 | S$1,880 – S$2,550 | ~28 – 40% | SELECTIVE |
Sources: ERA Research 1Q 2026 report; SRX resale data; PropertyNet.SG 2026 comparison; developer launch reports. Ranges reflect significant within-segment variation.
The OCR gap of 28 to 40% is the most contested number in the market right now. It is wide enough to be uncomfortable for investors, yet developers have been selling. Understanding why requires going district by district, not segment by segment.
District-by-district comparison table
The table below maps current active and upcoming new launches from the 2026 pipeline to resale PSF context in the same district. All resale PSF figures are estimated from transaction data; see the data note above.
| District | Key new launches (2026) | New launch PSF | Resale PSF (est.) | Premium (est.) | Best for |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 Marina South / Tanjong Pagar | One Marina Gardens | S$2,800 – S$3,200 | S$2,400 – S$2,800 | ~15 – 20% | Investors with long horizon; marina district re-rating thesis |
| D5 One-North / Clementi / West Coast | Bloomsbury Residences, Hudson Place Residences | S$2,400 – S$2,700 | S$1,700 – S$2,100 | ~20 – 35% | Investors betting on One-North tech/research rental demand |
| D10 Holland / Bukit Timah / Tanglin | Dunearn House, Amberwood at Holland | S$2,700 – S$3,200 | S$2,200 – S$2,800 | ~15 – 25% | Owner-occupiers; CCR long-hold; freehold resale still competitive |
| D15 East Coast / Katong / Marine Parade | No active 2026 launch; Vela Bay (D16 adjacent) | N/A (no active D15 launch) | S$2,000 – S$2,600 | N/A | Resale wins in 2026; freehold stock, established demand |
| D19 Serangoon / Hougang / Lorong Chuan | Chuan Grove Residences, Hougang Central Residences (2027) | S$2,300 – S$2,600 | S$1,640 – S$1,814 | ~30 – 40% | CRL interchange play; integrated development premium |
| D21 Upper Bukit Timah / Clementi Park | No active 2026 launch in D21 proper | N/A | S$1,800 – S$2,200 | N/A | Resale wins; mature estate, limited new supply, school catchment |
| D23 Hillview / Dairy Farm / Bukit Panjang | Narra Residences | S$1,930 – S$2,100 | S$1,612 – S$1,804 | ~15 – 25% | HDB upgraders; moderate premium for new lease and layout |
| D27 Sembawang / Yishun / Canberra | Canberra Crescent Residences, Chencharu Close Residences (H2 2026) | S$1,880 – S$2,200 | S$1,100 – S$1,760 | ~20 – 50% | First-timer subsidy-eligible entry; North precinct infrastructure play |
New launch PSF from developer launch reports and EdgeProp as at April 2026. Resale PSF from SRX, PropertyGuru, ERA Research, and PLB Research district reports. Figures are ranges, not point estimates. Older resale stock pulls ranges lower; newer resale pulls ranges higher within each district.
Three districts where the new launch case holds up
Not every premium is unjustified. The following three districts have a coherent investor thesis that gives the new launch gap some structural backing.
D5: One-North / Media Circle (Bloomsbury Residences, Hudson Place)
New launch PSF: S$2,400 – S$2,700 | Resale PSF (est.): S$1,700 – S$2,100 | Premium: ~20 – 35% (est.)
The bull case here is tenant-driven, not speculative. One-North is Singapore's designated tech, biomedical, and media campus. Biopolis, Fusionopolis, and the broader JTC-managed cluster generate a dense pool of white-collar tenants who are employed by companies with substantial relocation budgets. Both Bloomsbury Residences and Hudson Place sit directly adjacent to One-North MRT (Circle Line) and are positioned to capture this tenant pool at TOP in 2029.
Investor math (est.): A 2-bedroom unit at Bloomsbury at S$2,550 PSF / 700 sqft costs approximately S$1.79M. At TOP (est. 2029), a comparable 2BR in the same submarket should rent for S$5,200 – S$5,800 per month based on current comparable leases at Maple Tree Business City adjacent to one-north. Gross yield: approximately 3.5 – 3.9% (est.). Resale PSF at TOP, if the One-North precinct continues attracting tech capital, could reach S$2,800 – S$3,000 (est.), implying a 10 – 18% capital gain from entry.
The caveat: The premium is only justified if occupancy is supported. One-North has historically had relatively low vacancy because demand is institutional-driven, not retail-driven. If the tech/biomedical tenant cluster softens, this thesis weakens faster than a generic OCR condo. The entry PSF is already pricing in significant optimism relative to current resale stock, much of which is 10 to 15 years older and transacts below S$2,000 PSF. Resale buyers in D5 who find a well-maintained mid-2010s unit below S$1,900 PSF with a remaining lease above 80 years and a walk to one-north MRT are getting comparable proximity at a material discount.
D23: Dairy Farm / Hillview (Narra Residences)
New launch PSF: S$1,930 – S$2,100 | Resale PSF (est.): S$1,612 – S$1,804 | Premium: ~15 – 25% (est.)
Of all the OCR new launches in 2026, Narra Residences in Dairy Farm has the most defensible premium. The specific reasons: first, the Dairy Farm Road and Hillview corridor is MRT-served by the Downtown Line (Hillview DTL), which provides a one-transfer route to the CBD. Second, D23 has historically had very thin new supply given the nature reserve buffer on the Bukit Timah side, meaning resale stock ages faster than in denser districts. Third, Narra's indicative PSF of S$1,930 – S$2,100 represents only a 15 – 25% premium over recent resale transactions at Dairy Farm Residences, which has been transacting at S$1,619 – S$1,950 PSF. The gap is not egregious by Singapore standards.
Investor math (est.): A 3-bedroom unit at Narra at approximately S$2,000 PSF / 1,076 sqft costs around S$2.15M. Rental for a comparable 3BR in Hillview currently runs S$4,500 – S$5,200 per month (est.). Gross yield at entry: approximately 2.5 – 2.9% (est.). This is below the threshold most investors target but is consistent with the Hillview submarket's historical profile as a capital-appreciation rather than income-yield district. The risk is duration: if you need yield from day one (including the construction period), D23 does not deliver it.
The caveat: The resale premium is modest but so is the appreciation potential relative to more infrastructure-driven districts. Hillview is unlikely to see a step-change catalyst in the next 5 years. It is a stable hold, not a high-conviction growth play. Resale buyers who find a well-maintained Hillview condo with 4 or more years of warranty remaining and immediate occupancy may be better positioned if they plan a 3-year hold rather than 7+.
D1: Marina South (One Marina Gardens)
New launch PSF: S$2,800 – S$3,200 | Resale PSF (est.): S$2,400 – S$2,800 | Premium: ~15 – 20% (est.)
Marina South sits in a structurally unusual position: it is both a new and undersupplied submarket. Unlike most OCR or even RCR new launches, where substantial resale comparables exist, Marina South has very few comparable resale condos because the precinct is essentially being built from scratch on reclaimed land. One Marina Gardens launched at an average S$2,953 PSF in January 2026 with Kingsford selling 353 of 937 units in the first weekend, a 38% take-up rate that validates genuine demand at these prices.
Investor math (est.): The Marina Bay CBD fringe thesis rests on the long-arc transformation of Marina South into a mixed-use precinct as the 2040+ URA Master Plan unfolds. Adjacent to Marina Bay MRT (Circle/Downtown Line/Thomson-East Coast Line triple interchange), the connectivity premium is real. Rental at TOP (est. 2029) should be supported by finance and tech professionals working in the CBD: a 2BR at 700 sqft could rent at S$5,500 – S$6,200 per month (est.) given comparable pricing at Marina One Residences. Gross yield: approximately 3.0 – 3.4% (est.). The capital appreciation thesis depends on whether Marina South fills up with comparable projects at similar or higher PSF, which is probable given GLS reserve list pricing in the precinct.
The caveat: Marina South is a greenfield district with no established lifestyle infrastructure yet. Buyers are paying for what will exist in 2030 to 2040, not what exists today. The 15 to 20% premium over current D1 resale is more justifiable than the 30 to 40% gaps in some OCR districts, but the absolute PSF at S$2,800 to S$3,200 means the quantum is high and the tenant profile is narrow. Any economic softening in financial services employment will be felt here faster than in suburban districts.
Two districts where resale wins in 2026
The premium in some districts is either too large for the fundamentals to support, or the resale alternatives are structurally superior for a particular buyer's needs.
D15: East Coast / Katong (no active 2026 new launch)
Resale PSF (est.): S$2,000 – S$2,600
District 15 is among the clearest resale wins in Singapore's 2026 property landscape, for a specific structural reason: there is no significant new launch in D15 proper in 2026. That absence is informative, not incidental. The district carries a high proportion of freehold and 999-year leasehold stock (particularly along Meyer Road, Amber Road, and Marine Parade), and buyers who want D15 must access it through resale. The lack of a new launch benchmark means there is no developer marketing machine inflating the district's perceived pricing floor.
Resale condos in D15 with freehold tenure and good facing have been transacting at S$2,000 – S$2,600 PSF. For a freehold asset in an established lifestyle corridor with the Thomson-East Coast Line now operational at Marine Parade and Katong Park stations, these prices represent genuine value relative to 99-year leasehold new launches in less connected districts at comparable or higher PSF. A 2BR freehold resale in Amber Road at S$2,100 PSF beats a 99-year leasehold new launch in D23 at S$2,000 PSF on every tenure metric, often with larger usable area from older layouts, and offers immediate rental income during what would otherwise be a construction waiting period.
The one risk: East Coast freehold resale has less immediate capital appreciation trigger than a new launch with a clear infrastructure catalyst. The return here is yield-first, stability-second. Buyers expecting 20%+ in five years should look elsewhere. Buyers who want 3.5 – 4.0% gross yield, immediate occupancy, and tenure security will find D15 resale hard to beat in 2026.
D27: Sembawang / Yishun (Canberra Crescent, Chencharu Close)
New launch PSF: S$1,880 – S$2,200 | Resale PSF (est.): S$1,100 – S$1,760 | Premium: ~20 – 50% (est.)
The D27 premium is the most uncomfortable number in the 2026 OCR market. At the lower end of resale (older Yishun condos transacting at S$1,100 – S$1,300 PSF) and the upper end of the new launch range (Chencharu Close at S$2,200 PSF), buyers are being asked to pay nearly double for a product that is still under construction in a precinct that currently has very limited lifestyle infrastructure. Even at the more reasonable comparison of newer D27 resale at S$1,700 – S$1,760 PSF (The Commodore range) versus Canberra Crescent at S$1,880 – S$2,100, the premium is 10 – 25% for a 99-year leasehold property that will not TOP until 2028 – 2029.
The bull case is the North Region infrastructure story: CRL interchange at Hougang (with Hougang Central Residences benefiting), the JB-SG Rapid Transit System (RTS) opening at Woodlands, and the long-term Chencharu precinct development. These catalysts are real but they are already partially priced in. The D27 market has appreciated 47% in median PSF between 2020 and 2025 according to PLB Research. The question for a 2026 buyer is not whether the North Region has appreciated, but whether the next 5 years deliver another 47% from a materially higher base.
For investors with a strong financial base and a 10-year horizon who believe in the North Region story, a selective Chencharu or Canberra Crescent entry is defensible. For everyone else, resale condos in D27 with leases above 85 years that have already been through one appreciation cycle offer better downside protection at lower absolute quantum.
Who should buy new launch: three buyer profiles
The district data above informs a more granular buyer-profile analysis. The right answer on new launch versus resale is not universal. It depends on where you are in the property journey and what you are actually solving for.
Profile 1: First-timer (no existing property, budget S$1.2M – S$1.7M)
First-timers get full CPF Ordinary Account access and are eligible for ABSD remission on their first purchase. At the S$1.2M – S$1.7M budget range, new launches in OCR are accessible: Tengah Garden Residences previewed at starting S$980,000, Narra Residences and Canberra Crescent both have entry-level units in range.
The PPS (Progressive Payment Scheme) is a genuine advantage for first-timers with stable but not large cash reserves, because it spreads capital calls over 3 years rather than requiring full stamp duty and down payment upfront. For buyers who are currently HDB owners past MOP and need to sell before buying, the new launch timeline also provides a natural restructuring: sell the HDB, rent temporarily, then take possession at TOP without bridging-loan complexity.
Verdict: New launch can be the right structural choice for first-timers, provided the specific project is in a submarket with a credible 5-year appreciation thesis and the buyer's employment is stable enough to absorb PPS drawdowns. D23 and D5 are the most defensible districts at this budget in 2026.
Profile 2: Upgrader (selling 1 property, buying into the S$2M – S$3M range)
Upgraders face ABSD timing risk on the restructuring gap unless they sell first. The new launch's delayed TOP actually helps here: an upgrader can sell the current property, take the sale proceeds to fund the new launch down payment and PPS drawdowns, and move into a rental for the construction period. Done correctly, this avoids the 20% ABSD exposure of holding two private properties simultaneously.
However, upgraders in the S$2M – S$3M range are now buying into lower-CCR or upper-RCR territory, where the resale market offers genuine competition. A freehold resale in D10 at S$2,400 PSF / 1,100 sqft (S$2.64M) bought today rents immediately, carries tenure security, and avoids construction-period rental costs (typically S$3,500 – S$5,000 per month for a comparable size). Over a 3-year wait, that is S$126,000 – S$180,000 in rental costs that a resale buyer avoids. The upgrader who buys new launch must factor this into their return calculation or the PSF comparison is misleading.
Verdict: Upgraders should run the full 3-year cost comparison including rental costs during construction before concluding new launch is cheaper than resale. In D10 and D15, freehold resale often wins on total-cost basis for the 5-year hold. In D5 and D19 with a specific catalyst thesis, new launch can justify the cost if the submarket growth rate is genuinely higher.
Profile 3: Investor (second property, paying ABSD, 7 to 10-year hold)
Second-property buyers (Singapore Citizens) face 20% ABSD on the purchase price. At S$2.5M, that is S$500,000 in ABSD. This fundamentally changes the return math. An investor buying a new launch at S$2,500 PSF all-in (including ABSD) has an effective cost base of approximately S$3,000 PSF. For the investment to break even before profit, the resale PSF at exit must clear S$3,000 PSF, at which point there is no capital gain. Every dollar of appreciation above S$3,000 PSF is actual return.
This makes the district selection for investor buyers particularly consequential. The districts with the strongest appreciation track records at the 7-to-10-year horizon in Singapore have historically been CCR submarkets with infrastructure uplift and RCR projects near MRT interchanges. For the investor frame, D5 (One-North), D19 (CRL interchange at Lorong Chuan, NEL-CRL at Hougang), and D3 (Zion Road / River Valley with Havelock MRT) all have specific infrastructure arguments that support a 7-to-10-year hold thesis, even after absorbing ABSD.
Verdict: For investors paying 20% ABSD, the entry district and project thesis matter enormously. Only districts with genuine infrastructure catalysts or tenant-demand differentiation can deliver returns after absorbing ABSD drag. D5 One-North, D19 CRL interchange, and D3 River Valley have the clearest structural arguments. D27 and D24 (Tengah, a genuinely new town) carry more timeline and demand uncertainty for an investor on a 7-year hold at current PSF levels.
The number most buyers ignore: rental drag during construction
When a buyer purchases a new launch today with a 2029 TOP, they will typically need to rent a home for approximately 3 years if they are selling their current property to upgrade. The rental cost is not optional and not zero. In Singapore's 2026 rental market, a 2-bedroom condo of comparable quality to what the buyer is purchasing typically runs S$3,500 – S$5,500 per month depending on district. Over 36 months, that is S$126,000 – S$198,000 in rental costs paid.
Most new launch comparisons omit this figure entirely. It should be added to the effective cost of the new launch purchase and compared against what a resale buyer avoids by moving in within 3 months of completion. The practical implication: in districts where the new launch premium is 20 to 25% over resale and the construction timeline is 3 years, the total cost of the new launch path (premium plus rental drag) is often closer to 30 to 40% above the resale total-cost path. Only if the submarket appreciates faster than 30 to 40% in 3 years does the new launch mathematically outperform on a total-cost basis.
What changes the math
Four variables move the new launch versus resale calculation materially, regardless of district:
- Remaining lease: Resale condos with fewer than 70 years remaining on 99-year leases face CPF usage restrictions and bank valuation haircuts. If the resale you are comparing has 62 years left, the "cheaper PSF" is partly a lease impairment, not a genuine discount.
- Unit efficiency: Pre-2015 resale condos frequently have 15 to 20% of strata area in balconies, bay windows, and planters that are included in PSF calculation but are not air-conditioned living space. A 2026 new launch at S$2,200 PSF with 95% efficiency may offer more liveable square footage per dollar than a 2012 resale at S$1,800 PSF with 82% efficiency.
- Interest rate environment: New launches benefit from PPS only when mortgage interest rates are elevated. At 3.5 to 4.0% bank rates (the current 2026 range), deferring loan drawdown during construction saves meaningful interest. If rates drop to 2.0% or below before TOP, the PPS benefit erodes substantially.
- Developer quality: A proven developer (CDL, CapitaLand, GuocoLand, Frasers) carries lower execution and finishing-quality risk than a consortium of smaller developers on their first large project. This matters for D27 and D24 where several projects involve less-established developer combinations. The risk is not default (project accounts protect against that) but quality, delay, and MCST governance post-TOP.
Internal resources for your specific situation
- ABSD calculator -- run the stamp duty cost for your specific ownership profile before comparing any new launch
- Affordability calculator -- stress-test your TDSR position at today's bank rates, not the developer's illustrative rate
- Full 2026 new launch pipeline -- all 36 active and upcoming projects with PSF, tenure, and developer details
- ABSD Singapore 2026: the full reference -- rates, remissions, and the restructuring strategy
- The framework article -- the decision framework that sits behind this district-level data
Run the numbers for your actual situation
The district table above gives you the ranges. The 4-Pillar Portfolio Audit gives you the specific project, specific unit, and specific holding-period math for your budget and timeline. Two hours. No pitch for whichever project pays the highest commission.
Book a free audit callWinfred Quek is a Senior Associate District Director and founder of Crestbrick, advising Singapore upgraders, investors, and family offices using the 4-Pillar Portfolio Audit framework. CEA R073319H. All figures are for general information only and do not constitute financial or investment advice. Verify all transaction data directly with URA, SRX, or EdgeProp before making a purchasing decision.