New Launch Pillar · District 11
Dunearn House vs Dunearn Road Plot 2: the first mover math
By Winfred Quek · CEA R073319H · Published 3 July 2026
Facts verified: 3 July 2026 · Pricing pending official launch · Sources noted in text
When URA awards two land parcels next to each other ten months apart, the second award writes the first project's marketing for it. That is what happened on Dunearn Road. Dunearn House won its site in July 2025 at S$1,410 psf ppr. On 4 May 2026, the adjacent Plot 2 went to a Winrich Investment and Metrobilt Construction joint venture at S$533 million, approximately S$1,625 psf ppr. Every Dunearn House salesperson in Singapore will quote you that 15.2% premium this month. My job here is to show you what the number actually means, and just as importantly, what it does not.
Two plots, one masterplan
The comparison only matters because the two sites share nearly everything that drives long term value here: the 176 hectare Turf City masterplan targeting 15,000 to 20,000 new homes over 20 to 30 years, the future Turf City station on the Cross Island Line estimated for 2032, the Bukit Timah school belt, and the scarcity story of a subzone that had not seen a new non landed launch in about 33 years before Dunearn House. What differs is when you enter, at what land basis, and with what information.
| Factor | Dunearn House (Plot 1) | Dunearn Road Plot 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Land awarded | 3 July 2025, nine bids | 4 May 2026 |
| Developer | Phoenix Dunearn Pte Ltd (Frasers Property, Sekisui House, CSC Land JV) | Winrich Investment and Metrobilt Construction JV |
| Land cost | S$491.45m, approx S$1,410 psf ppr | S$533m, approx S$1,625 psf ppr (+15.2%) |
| Units | 380 confirmed | Approx 330 expected |
| Launch window | Booking day 25 July 2026 | Expected 2H 2027 |
| Analyst launch PSF | Est. S$2,900 to S$3,100 (CBRE, SRI; unofficial) | Projected S$3,200 to S$3,300 (unofficial) |
| Lease start | 99 years from 30 September 2025 | 99 years, roughly two years later |
Land figures from URA award data as reported by COS.sg, Stacked Homes and ERA Research. All launch PSF figures are analyst estimates; no official pricing exists for either project.
The first mover math
Start with what is verified. The land cost gap is fact: S$1,410 versus S$1,625 psf ppr. Land is the largest single input into a developer's pricing floor; COS.sg calculates that land alone would represent 48.6% of a S$2,900 psf launch price for Dunearn House. A developer that paid 15.2% more for its dirt has structurally less room to undercut its neighbour, which is why ERA Research projects Plot 2 launching from approximately S$3,200 psf and why the wider analyst range for Plot 2 sits at S$3,200 to S$3,300 psf.
Now the dollars. MyChoiceHomez runs the arithmetic that most buyers actually care about: the S$150 to S$250 psf differential between the projects translates to roughly S$180,000 to S$300,000 on a 3 bedroom unit. Same masterplan, same future MRT station, same school belt, a launch window about a year apart. If both analyst ranges hold, the Dunearn House buyer captures the identical set of tailwinds at a meaningfully lower entry, and in this market S$200,000 or so is not rounding error. It is a renovation, several years of mortgage interest, or the stamp duty on the purchase.
There is a second, subtler advantage to moving first. Dunearn House buyers set the benchmark rather than pay it. When Plot 2 launches in 2H 2027 at a higher price, every one of its caveats becomes a comparable that marks the earlier project's units upward on paper. This is the pattern ERA highlights across the CCR, and it is the same first mover dynamic I unpacked for a different corridor in the Lentor investment analysis, where the pioneer project's buyers benefited as each subsequent site repriced the estate. Whether history rhymes here is an open question, but the mechanism is real. For the data on how new launch cohorts have actually performed, see new launch investment returns: what the data shows.
The honest counterpoint: what waiting buys you
If the first mover case were airtight, second sites would never sell. They do, and for defensible reasons. Anyone weighing this decision should hold the following three points with equal seriousness.
1. Price discovery is worth something
Today, every Dunearn House number is an estimate. By the time Plot 2 launches, you will know exactly what Dunearn House sold for, how fast it moved, which stacks cleared first and what the early resale or subsale appetite looks like. Buying Plot 2 means buying with a full set of caveats on the table next door. That information has genuine value, especially in a subzone with no modern transaction history at all. The 33 year supply gap cuts both ways: it makes Dunearn House scarce, and it also means nobody truly knows what this micro market clears at.
2. The newer product argument
Plot 2 will be designed roughly two years later, with a lease that starts roughly two years later, and its developer will have studied every criticism of Dunearn House's layouts, facilities and pricing before finalising its own. Buyers who waited for second phase projects in other precincts sometimes got sharper unit design and a fresher lease for their premium. You also avoid the deepest years of surrounding Turf City construction by entering later.
3. The projections could simply be wrong
The S$3,200 to S$3,300 psf figure for Plot 2 is a projection about a launch more than a year away, built on today's market. Cooling measures, rate moves or a soft CCR could compress the gap. Equally, Dunearn House could launch at the top of its own range and erase part of the discount before anyone banks it. Treat the S$150 to S$250 psf gap as a hypothesis supported by land costs, not a locked in arbitrage. My 2026 market outlook covers the macro forces that could move both numbers.
The Fourth Avenue lesson: entry price still rules
One more piece of history belongs in this conversation. DecouplingExpertise's review of Dunearn House leans on Fourth Avenue Residences, a leasehold project one MRT stop away that entered at approximately S$2,345 psf and returned early buyers about 3.2% per annum over 4.4 years, a disappointing outcome they attribute directly to the high entry price creating a downstream affordability problem for the next buyer. The warning applies to both plots. A S$200,000 discount to your neighbour is only a win if the absolute level you paid still leaves your eventual resale buyer room to pay more. First mover advantage is relative; affordability at exit is absolute. Both must hold.
How I would decide
Reduced to its essentials, the choice looks like this.
- Buy Dunearn House if the official price list lands at or below the analyst range, your budget clears the quantum without strain, and you value a roughly one year head start on the same catalysts plus the lower land basis. You accept thinner information in exchange for the discount.
- Wait for Plot 2 if you place a high value on seeing real transaction data first, you prefer the newest possible product and lease start, or your timeline is flexible into late 2027. You accept a projected higher entry in exchange for certainty and optionality.
- Walk away from both if the quantum only works with stretched assumptions. The framework in how to analyse a property investment applies before either ballot form does.
My own read: the land cost gap is real, verified and structural, and it favours the first mover on pure math. But the math only becomes actionable on 25 July when the developer publishes actual prices. If Dunearn House launches near S$2,900 psf, the first mover case is strong. If it launches at S$3,100 psf or above, the gap to Plot 2's projected range narrows enough that waiting for information becomes the more defensible position. Watch the price list, not the brochure.
Frequently asked questions
What is Dunearn Road Plot 2?
The second GLS site adjacent to Dunearn House, awarded 4 May 2026 to a Winrich Investment and Metrobilt Construction joint venture at S$533 million, approximately S$1,625 psf ppr. It is expected to yield around 330 units and launch in 2H 2027. All Plot 2 launch pricing is analyst projection only.
How much cheaper is Dunearn House expected to be than Plot 2?
Analyst consensus puts Dunearn House at roughly S$2,900 to S$3,100 psf and projects Plot 2 at roughly S$3,200 to S$3,300 psf, a gap of about S$150 to S$250 psf. MyChoiceHomez estimates that at roughly S$180,000 to S$300,000 on a 3 bedroom. None of these figures are official.
Why did Plot 2 land cost 15.2% more?
Dunearn House land was awarded in July 2025 at S$1,410 psf ppr from nine bids; Plot 2 followed ten months later at S$1,625 psf ppr. The premium reflects developers repricing the Turf City story upward after the first site validated demand, plus general market movement. Higher land cost sets a higher pricing floor.
Is it better to wait for Plot 2?
Waiting buys price discovery from actual Dunearn House transactions, a newer product with a later lease start, and optionality. The cost is a projected higher entry price. Neither answer is universally right; it depends on budget, timeline and how much you value information over discount.
Do the two projects share the same catalysts?
Largely yes: the same Turf City masterplan, the same future CRL station estimated for 2032, and the same Bukit Timah school and amenity ecosystem. The differences are entry timing, land basis, product design and block positioning, which for Plot 2 will not be known until closer to its launch.
Deciding between buying now and waiting?
The right answer depends on your quantum ceiling, holding period and what else sits in your portfolio, not on a brochure comparison. A Property Portfolio Analysis runs both scenarios against your actual numbers before the 25 July booking day forces the question. No pitch for whichever project pays the highest commission.
Book a free portfolio analysis callWinfred Quek, Associate Marketing Consultant · CEA R073319H · Crestbrick Pte Ltd (L31010886H). The information on this page is general and does not constitute financial, investment or mortgage advice. All figures, especially pre launch pricing, are estimates for general information only. Verify all project details, dates and pricing directly with the developer, and all transaction data with URA, before making any purchasing decision.