Masterplan Analysis · CCR · Bukit Timah
Turf City transformation property outlook: what the masterplan actually means for D11 and D21 values
By Winfred Quek · Associate Marketing Consultant · CEA R073319H · Crestbrick Pte Ltd (L31010886H) · 3 July 2026
Facts from URA planning documents, GLS tender records and analyst research · 3 July 2026
Every Dunearn House sales pitch leads with the Turf City transformation. The artist impressions are impressive. The vision is compelling. And most of what I read about the transformation stops there, at the vision, without grounding it in what is actually confirmed, what is planned but not locked in, and what the honest timeline looks like for a buyer who signs an OTP in July 2026 and holds until 2034.
This article is my attempt to write the Turf City piece that I would want to read as a buyer: fact-anchored, timeline-specific, and honest about the trade-offs on both sides. I am not trying to sell Dunearn House. I am trying to give a buyer the information needed to decide whether the transformation story justifies the entry price at today's analyst estimates.
What is confirmed about the Turf City masterplan
Several facts are verifiable from URA planning materials and government announcements. I will stick to these.
| Confirmed Fact | Source / Status |
|---|---|
| Total site area: approximately 176 hectares | URA masterplan materials, confirmed |
| Planned homes: 15,000 to 20,000 over 20 to 30 years | URA planning intention, confirmed |
| HDB flats to be included: first in Bukit Timah in approximately 40 years | Government announcement, confirmed |
| Heritage conservation: 22 structures including the Grandstand and horse-related facilities | URA conservation list, confirmed |
| Ecological corridor to be maintained through the site | URA planning materials, confirmed |
| Retail, schools, healthcare nodes planned | URA planning intention; specific locations not yet finalised |
| Cross Island Line Turf City station (CR14): expected operational approximately 2032 | LTA CRL Phase 2 announcement, confirmed |
| Singapore Turf Club ceased horse racing operations: 2024 | Confirmed, site cleared for redevelopment |
| First GLS site (Dunearn House): awarded 3 July 2025 at S$1,410 psf ppr | URA tender records, confirmed |
| Second GLS site (Plot 2): awarded 4 May 2026 at S$1,625 psf ppr, approximately 330 units, expected launch 2H 2027 | URA tender records, confirmed |
What is planned but not yet locked in
A number of features of the Turf City masterplan are described in URA materials as planning intentions rather than approved layouts. The specific locations and types of schools, the exact retail footprint, the specific healthcare facility configuration, and the sequencing of HDB releases are all planning-stage decisions that will be refined over years, not fixed commitments a 2026 buyer can rely on for a 2028 to 2034 holding period. The masterplan is a genuine government commitment to the transformation of this precinct. It is not a guaranteed delivery schedule of specific amenities on specific dates.
The honest timeline: what exists when
| Year range | What is likely to exist | What is still in progress |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 to 2027 | Dunearn House under construction; Sixth Avenue MRT operational; Heritage structures being conserved | Plot 2 launched; Turf City MRT design finalised; HDB BTOs not yet announced |
| 2028 to 2030 | First HDB BTO applications likely launched; Plot 2 construction; Dunearn House approaching TOP (Dec 2030) | Turf City MRT still under construction; schools and retail nodes in planning; wider precinct landscaping incomplete |
| 2031 to 2035 | Turf City MRT (CRL) operational approx 2032; Dunearn House and Plot 2 fully occupied; first HDB blocks likely TOPing | Retail and amenity nodes coming online; further GLS phases still in development; construction noise ongoing |
| 2036 to 2050+ | 15,000 to 20,000 homes progressively completed; full amenity ecosystem operational; Turf City a functioning precinct | Full masterplan completion across the 20 to 30 year horizon |
A buyer who enters at Dunearn House in July 2026 and sells at year 8 in approximately 2034 will be holding through a period of active construction, a new MRT station opening, and the earliest HDB blocks completing nearby. That is a mid-transformation hold. The full transformation benefit, the mature precinct with all schools, retail and healthcare operational, is more relevant for buyers with a 15 to 20 year horizon.
The two-site GLS dynamic: first-mover vs repricing
Two private residential GLS sites on Dunearn Road have been awarded. Understanding the relationship between them is central to understanding the investment case for Dunearn House buyers.
Dunearn House (Plot 1): the first-mover advantage
Phoenix Dunearn Pte Ltd won the land at S$491.45m, or S$1,410 psf ppr, in a tender that attracted nine bidders. The winning bid was only 3.7% above the second-place bid (CDL), which demonstrates broad developer conviction in the precinct rather than a single outlier. Analyst consensus sets the estimated breakeven at approximately S$2,558 psf and the launch range at S$2,900 to S$3,100 psf. At that PSF, land accounts for approximately 48.6% of the launch price. The first-mover advantage is real: Dunearn House enters before the transformation is priced in to subsequent GLS sites.
Dunearn Road Plot 2: the repricing signal
The second site on Dunearn Road was awarded on 4 May 2026 to a Winrich Investment and Metrobilt Construction JV at S$533m, or approximately S$1,625 psf ppr. That is a 15.2% premium above what Phoenix Dunearn paid for Plot 1. Analysts project Plot 2 will launch at approximately S$3,200 to S$3,300 psf, expected in 2H 2027. This creates a specific investment dynamic for Dunearn House: buyers who enter at the estimated S$2,900 to S$3,100 psf are buying S$150 to S$250 psf below the likely market anchor price when Plot 2 launches next door in 2027. On a 3-bedroom, that translates to approximately S$180,000 to S$300,000 of first-mover value at the point Plot 2 creates a new price ceiling for the micro-market.
What the D10 price performance tells us about D11 potential
D11 (Bukit Timah, Swiss Club, Dunearn Road subzone) does not have a large base of recent transactions to benchmark from, precisely because the last non-landed new launch in this specific subzone was in the early 1990s. The adjacent D10 corridor (River Valley, Holland, Stevens) provides the most relevant comparison. ERA research data shows D10 resale prices rose 21.7% from 2021 to 2026, versus the CCR average of 17.6%. That outperformance against the broader CCR is consistent with the structural supply-demand picture in the Bukit Timah corridor: limited new stock, strong school-driven demand, and proximity to the Orchard belt.
If D11 follows a similar trajectory as Turf City amenities come online, the structural case for Dunearn House is plausible. But D10's performance was driven partly by established infrastructure and amenities that D11 around Turf City does not yet have. The D11 story is a forward-looking bet, not a backward-looking extrapolation.
The 99-year leasehold in a freehold neighbourhood: the honest conversation
Bukit Timah is one of Singapore's most freehold-dominated neighbourhoods. Watten House launched at S$3,212 to S$3,337 psf freehold. Dunearn 386 (freehold, TOP 2023) transacts at resale around S$2,551 psf. Dunearn House is 99-year leasehold, likely to launch at approximately S$2,900 to S$3,100 psf. The question every buyer will face at resale is whether a 99-year leasehold in this specific subzone can hold its value against freehold comparables that a future buyer might prefer.
There is no clean answer here, and I will not pretend there is. Leasehold properties in Singapore have historically sold at a discount to freehold on comparable locations, especially in later lease years. A buyer in 2051 considering Dunearn House will see approximately 74 years of lease remaining. That is not catastrophic for a resale, but it is psychologically different from the indefinite tenure of adjacent freehold stock. Buyers should price this into their exit modelling rather than ignore it. The CCR vs RCR vs OCR framework covers how region and tenure interact at the resale stage.
The supply headwind: 15,000 to 20,000 new homes is a large number
Most of the Turf City marketing narrative focuses on demand creation. The same plan also creates supply. 15,000 to 20,000 homes over 20 to 30 years translates to roughly 500 to 1,000 new homes per year in the vicinity, across both public and private segments. For the resale buyers of Dunearn House and Plot 2 units in the 2030s and 2040s, this means the neighbourhood will have abundant new alternatives. First movers who sell before the later supply waves come are generally better positioned than those who hold through peak supply.
The HDB component specifically is worth noting. HDB flats in Bukit Timah will be the first in approximately 40 years. While private and public segments do not directly compete at resale, a significant public housing component in the transformation area moderates the overall price premium that can be commanded for private ownership in that micro-location. This is a nuance most optimistic analysis omits.
The bottom line for D11 property buyers in 2026
The Turf City transformation is a genuine structural tailwind for D11 property values, anchored by verified URA commitments, a new MRT line, and two demonstrably competitive GLS tenders. It is a 20 to 30 year story, not a 5-year story. Buyers who need a mature precinct with full amenity access should wait until the masterplan matures. Buyers who are comfortable holding through a decade of construction in exchange for first-mover pricing and the CRL catalyst in 2032 have a credible case.
The two risks that deserve full weight are the 99-year leasehold dynamic in a freehold neighbourhood, and the future supply headwind from 15,000 to 20,000 eventual homes in the same precinct. Neither is fatal. Both need to be in your model. For the specific Dunearn House picture, the ABSD guide and the 2026 mortgage rate guide are the next practical steps for any buyer running the numbers.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Turf City masterplan?
Approximately 176 hectares in Bukit Timah, previously the Singapore Turf Club (which ceased racing in 2024). URA plans 15,000 to 20,000 new homes over 20 to 30 years, including the first HDB flats in Bukit Timah in approximately 40 years, retail, schools, healthcare, heritage conservation of 22 structures, and ecological corridors. The Cross Island Line Turf City MRT (CR14) is expected operational in 2032.
Is Dunearn House part of the Turf City masterplan?
Dunearn House is the first private residential GLS development adjacent to the Turf City planning area. It is not itself within the masterplan boundary but its investment thesis is substantially anchored to the expected value uplift as the precinct develops, particularly the CRL station expected in 2032.
What will be built at Turf City by 2030?
Based on planning materials, early deliverables by approximately 2030 include first HDB BTO launches, early commercial nodes, and the Turf City MRT station (CRL, expected 2032). Full amenity build-out including schools and healthcare is a longer-dated masterplan deliverable across the 20 to 30 year horizon.
What does the Turf City masterplan mean for D11 property values?
It is both an upside and a headwind. Upside: new MRT, revitalised precinct, structural demand for private residential nearby. Headwind: 15,000 to 20,000 future homes represent supply competition. Early buyers in the first GLS sites enter before the transformation premium is fully priced in. D10 prices rose 21.7% from 2021 to 2026 versus the CCR average of 17.6%, showing the broader Bukit Timah corridor has already been outperforming.
What is Dunearn Road Plot 2 and how does it relate to Dunearn House?
Plot 2 is the adjacent second GLS site, awarded 4 May 2026 at S$1,625 psf ppr (15.2% above Dunearn House's land cost). Analysts project a launch at approximately S$3,200 to S$3,300 psf in 2H 2027. This creates a S$150 to S$250 psf first-mover advantage for Dunearn House buyers relative to the next price anchor in the same micro-market.
How long will Turf City construction be disruptive?
The Turf City transformation is explicitly a 20 to 30 year programme. Construction in the wider precinct will be ongoing through the 2030s and into the 2040s. Buyers holding for 7 to 10 years should plan for prolonged nearby construction activity. It is a manageable, not a dealbreaking condition, but it should factor into stack selection and holding-period expectations.
Evaluating the Turf City story for your own portfolio?
A Property Portfolio Analysis goes beyond the masterplan narrative. It maps whether a Dunearn House or D11 purchase fits your income, existing property position, time horizon, and family needs, and models the holding period math under different exit scenarios. Book a call before the 10 July preview to have a clear picture before you register interest.
Book a portfolio analysisWinfred Quek is an Associate Marketing Consultant at Crestbrick Pte Ltd (L31010886H). CEA R073319H. The information on this page is general and does not constitute financial, investment, or mortgage advice. Masterplan details are sourced from URA planning materials and are subject to change by the planning authority. Developer pricing estimates are analyst projections. Verify all project details, dates and pricing directly with URA and the relevant developers before making any purchasing decision.