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It applies historical 2023 to 2025 oversubscription patterns to your inputs: the town tier you pick, the flat type, and any priority scheme you qualify for. Mature central towns are far more competitive than quieter non mature towns, and priority schemes lift your odds. The output is an indicative shortlisting probability, not a precise forecast for the current exercise.
No, and this distinction matters. The estimate is your chance of being shortlisted to select a unit, not of securing a specific flat you want. The ballot is random after priority filtering, and actual unit selection happens months later, by which point your preferred stack or floor may be taken. Shortlisting is the first hurdle, not the finish line.
Priority schemes such as the Married Parent Priority or schemes for seniors and multi generation families set aside a share of units, which improves your shortlisting odds compared with a first timer applying without a scheme. Second timers face tighter allocation and lower odds. The tool adjusts the estimate based on the scheme you select to reflect this.
When the estimated odds are low and your timeline is tight. If the tool shows a slim shortlisting chance, you may face several application cycles plus the build wait, which can stretch years. Buyers who cannot wait often find resale faster, even at a higher price. The estimator is built to inform exactly this BTO versus resale call.
Treat them as directional. They are based on historical 2023 to 2025 application rates, and each new exercise can subscribe very differently depending on location, supply, and demand at that moment. Always check the current cycle's subscription figures from HDB before deciding. Winfred Quek can help weigh a specific BTO project against the resale alternative for your situation.