Are Condo Rents Falling? What the URA Numbers Say

No, not overall. URA's Q2 2026 data shows the private residential rental index rose 0.7 percent quarter on quarter, after a 0.3 percent rise in Q1. But the picture is mixed: rents for non landed homes outside the city centre actually fell 0.3 percent, and vacancy rose to 6.4 percent from 6.2 percent. The honest answer is rents are edging up overall while one segment softens.

Money: what URA actually reported for Q2 2026

URA's release of 2nd quarter 2026 real estate statistics, published 24 July 2026, is the primary source here, and it does not describe a market in decline. Rentals of private residential properties rose 0.7 percent in Q2 2026, faster than the 0.3 percent rise in Q1. Landed property rents climbed 2.7 percent, up from 0.1 percent the previous quarter. Non landed rents rose 0.4 percent, the same pace as Q1.

The regional split is where the mixed picture shows up. Non landed rents in the Core Central Region rose 1.2 percent, faster than the 0.5 percent rise in Q1. Rest of Central Region rents were unchanged, against a 0.2 percent fall the previous quarter. Outside Central Region, the mass market suburbs where most tenants and most landlords sit, non landed rents fell 0.3 percent, a reversal from the 1.0 percent rise in Q1.

Money: vacancy is the number worth watching

The private residential vacancy rate rose to 6.4 percent as at the end of Q2 2026, up from 6.2 percent in Q1, according to URA. By region, vacancy in the Core Central Region was 8.3 percent, up from 8.2 percent. Rest of Central Region vacancy actually fell slightly to 6.1 percent from 6.3 percent. Outside Central Region vacancy rose to 5.6 percent from 5.2 percent, the largest move of the three regions.

Read together with the OCR rent decline, the vacancy uptick in the Outside Central Region points to the same underlying pressure: a steady flow of newly completed units in the suburbs is giving tenants more choice, and landlords in that segment are the ones absorbing softer pricing and slightly longer gaps between tenancies. Core Central Region carries the highest vacancy in absolute terms, but its rents and vacancy both moved up only slightly, not down.

Timing: how Q2 compares with the trend into it

The direction of travel matters as much as the single quarter reading. Private residential rents accelerated from 0.3 percent in Q1 2026 to 0.7 percent in Q2, while private residential prices decelerated from 0.9 percent in Q1 to 0.5 percent in Q2. Rents and prices are not moving in lockstep right now, which is a useful reminder that a headline price story and a headline rent story can point in slightly different directions in the same quarter.

Landed rents show the clearest acceleration, up 2.7 percent in Q2 against 0.1 percent in Q1, a segment that is small in unit count but often the first to move when demand shifts. Non landed rents held a steady 0.4 percent both quarters, so the more relevant story for most condo owners and buyers is the regional split rather than the overall non landed figure. Core Central Region rents sped up from 0.5 percent to 1.2 percent, Rest of Central Region flattened from a 0.2 percent fall to unchanged, and Outside Central Region flipped from a 1.0 percent rise to a 0.3 percent fall. Three regions, three different trajectories, all inside the same "rents rose 0.7 percent" headline.

Timing: what this means if you are pricing a lease renewal

If you are a landlord with a renewal coming up, do not anchor on a single citywide headline in either direction. A tenant renewing in a Core Central Region project has some room to ask for a modest increase given rents there actually rose. A landlord in an Outside Central Region project should expect a flatter or slightly softer negotiation, since OCR non landed rents fell in the same quarter. Pull the actual rental transactions for your specific project rather than relying on the regional average, since a single building's vacancy can run well above or below its region's figure depending on how much new supply just completed nearby.

Vacancy at 6.4 percent citywide, up from 6.2 percent, also means a longer than usual gap is more likely if your unit does not get relet immediately. Building a slightly longer vacancy buffer into your cash flow plan for the next lease is a reasonable adjustment, not an overreaction.

Safety: what it means if you are buying purely for yield

Buying purely for rental yield right now means underwriting to the segment you are actually buying into, not to the citywide headline. A Core Central Region purchase should be checked against CCR rental comparables and the 8.3 percent CCR vacancy rate. An Outside Central Region purchase should be checked against the fact that OCR non landed rents fell 0.3 percent in Q2 and OCR vacancy rose to 5.6 percent. Neither number is alarming on its own, but a yield case that only works if the OCR segment reverses its recent softening is a weaker basis for a purchase than one that already clears an acceptable return using Q2 2026 numbers as they stand.

Safety: three questions to run before you sign anything

First, which region and segment is the property actually in. A landed home or a Core Central Region condo sits in a segment where rents rose faster in Q2 than Q1. An Outside Central Region non landed condo sits in the one segment that turned negative. The same purchase decision looks different depending on which of those you are underwriting.

Second, what vacancy allowance the deal can absorb. With citywide vacancy at 6.4 percent and Outside Central Region vacancy up to 5.6 percent from 5.2 percent, a yield case that assumes near zero vacancy between tenants is not realistic. Build in a vacancy allowance that reflects your region's actual rate, not an optimistic assumption.

Third, whether the number you were quoted is a real transaction or an asking price. Asking rents on portal listings can run ahead of what actually gets signed, especially in a softening segment. Ask for recent closed transactions in the specific project, not just what is currently listed, before you commit to a purchase or agree to a renewal figure.

For the mechanics of the calculation itself, see how rental yield is actually computed and the honest read in the four percent yield lie. To compare districts before you commit, check rental yield by district for 2026.

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